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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd