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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still