Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.