Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

Just eight weeks prior that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the reason of the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Joy

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

This is a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have piled up.

Per Opta, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more against Manchester United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

A Formidable Weapon

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.

  • The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was during his peak.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.

Angela Brennan
Angela Brennan

A former casino manager turned independent gaming analyst, specializing in slot machine mechanics and responsible gambling practices.