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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained half a million votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.