Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In President Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The mean number of daily killings each month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new government figures. However, public safety analysts have advised that homicide numbers may not point to improved national safety.

Marked Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the smallest amount of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense organized crime infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is especially true given the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not useful for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly averages of daily killings was also concerning because it may hide days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.