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This surely should not continue. The logic defies rational sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Historic Victory Against the Odds

Aston Villa entered the weekend's Premier League encounter at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and might have added several more. But, Chelsea have shown frailty with a lead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a baffling knack of snatching away victories from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post after his initial shot was saved by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he secured the winner with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might feel a bit of luck was due, and it's undeniable the equalizing goal had a large slice of good fortune. At the moment, though, fortune seems to be favoring Villa.

The Numbers Of an Unlikely Streak

The last nine of these eleven straight wins were by a solitary goal. They have kept a shutout in only one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in only six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the advantage was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula should not, yet observers have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will eventually match their displays or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This should not be sustainable, but everyone has been stating that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Trait: Belief

Fighting back is not merely a trait of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no side has won more points when trailing than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those have been secured this season, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored nine goals. Two key points can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no game ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at changing games through his use of the bench.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa became the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple change. Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had struggled with limited service. Immediately, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's movement behind the defensive line created issues. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the midfield and providing the flank presence they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's zero before the substitutions; following them, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could easily have won more comfortably. Not for the first time, opposing manager Maresca struggled to react as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is better at implementing a game plan with time to prepare than adapting on the fly.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a happy habit of players producing pieces of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a recurring leitmotif. It was the winger who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's seldom the entire team playing brilliantly, but sufficient individuals within it delivering to earn the victories.

The Road Ahead

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as part of the title race, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that status. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.

Arsenal have since put together their own sequence of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both teams – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to deny their championship pedigree.