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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."